I helgen kom det viktig PMI data från Kina som var ganska förbryllande.

I Kina publiceras två PMI, dels den officiella och dels en från HSBC. Den förstnämna frågar mest större bolag medan den senare frågar små- och medelstora. Det ryktas också om att det officiella indexet inte säsongsjusteras vilket brukar innebära att mars brukar vara relativt starkt

http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2012/04/01/march-madness-for-china-pmi/

Historiskt har det ibland uppstått spreadar men de tenderar att försvinna, men framförallt är korrelationen hög. Därför var det märkligt när helgens siffror visade på en markant förbättring och försämring. Så här skriver CS om den officiella siffran.

China Mar PMI Mfg a big beat!!!!

Came at 53.1 v 51.0 prior and cons of 50.80 (New Orders strong at 55.1 v 51.0 pr – New Exports 51.9 v 51.1 prior). One year high.

CS’ Dong Tao thinks the number is distorted by strong rebound in tobacco and metal products (added 1.93pp of total 2.1pp improvement).

March headline PMI rose 2.1 pp to 53.1, against the consensus expectation of a mild moderation. We were very surprised by the surge and believe that the improvement was inconsistent with the situation we heard on the ground.

We think the PMI could have been distorted upwards by the strong rebound in tobacco and metal products from their previously depressed level. The two sectors alone contributed 1.93 pp of the total 2.1 pp improvement.

Overall, we feel that economic activities are probably flattish, or may have very minor improvement. We would urge investors not take the 2.1 pp jump in the headline PMI by its face value. The report probably gives a little more comfort to Beijing regarding the state of the economy, especially on its growth prospects. We expect to see some minor fine-tuning measures in April, but the possibility of launching any meaningful stimulus remains unlikely.

We think growth is difficult to rebound anytime soon. Growth constraint has quietly shifted from policy restrictions to the lack of demand recently. Our central-case scenario is to see growth staying flat at around 8% on YoY terms, while slipping below 8% on a QoQ annualised basis.

Så här kom HSBC China PMI

CHINA HSBC MARCH MANUFACTURING PMI AT 48.3 (FEB 49.6, FLASH MARCH 48.1)

BEIJING, April 1 (Reuters) – China’s factory slowdown worsened in March as output fell for a fifth consecutive month and manufacturers received fewer orders, a private survey showed, building the case for Beijing to take new policy steps to shore up economic growth. HSBC said on Sunday its final Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 48.3 in March from 49.6 in February, and largely in line with HSBC’s Flash PMI reading of 48.1 for March.

The sub-index for manufacturing output slid to 47.3 in March from February’s 50.2, the second-lowest reading since March 2009 after November’s trough of 46.1. ”Final PMI results confirm a further slowdown of growth momentum, weighed by weakening new export orders,” said Qu Hongbin, an economist at HSBC. ”Weaker export growth is likely to prompt further easing measures.”

Survey results showed both foreign and domestic demand were poor. Sub-indices for new orders and new export orders languished below the 50-point level that separates expansion from contraction in activity.

It was the fifth consecutive month that new orders shrank. New export orders rebounded from an eight-month low in February but still contracted in March. Worryingly, the survey also showed factory inflation quickened to stay above 50 points despite slower production that shrank factory employment to a three-year low.

The gloomy PMI reading mirrors the decline in China’s actual factory output, where growth slumped to a 2-1/2-year low of 11.4 percent in January and February.

Some economists have warned against reading too much into China’s January and February economic data because they are distorted by the Lunar New Year holiday, but HSBC noted its average PMI readings in the first quarter were the worst in three years.

Even so, some analysts are hopeful China’s economy will speed up after March if Beijing further loosens monetary policy and unveils more state spending. Qu expects China to further reduce the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves before the end of June by cutting the reserve requirement ratio by 100 basis points.

Det ger en mixad bild med andra ord. Med tanke på marknadens oförändrade stängning i natt så verkar det inte som om marknaden heller verkar veta hur de ska tolka det!

Idag har vi en hel radda PMIs att hålla koll på…

Exp Prior
FR:PMI Manufacturing Time:10:50 47.6 47.6
GE:PMI Manufacturing Time:10:55 48.1 48.1
EC:PMI Manufacturing Time:11:00 47.7 47.7
UK:PMI Manufacturing Time:11:30 50.7 51.2
US:ISM Manufacturing Time:17:00 53.4 52.4

Resten av veckan är också viktig…