I natt kom handelsdata från Kina för april. Den var klen! Börserna reagerade negativt!

Importen steg med 0,3% mot väntat 11 och föreg 5,3
Exporten steg med 4,9% mot väntat 8,5 och föreg 8,9

Klent! Importen är viktigast tycker jag då den representerar Kinas roll som motor i världsekonomin. Exporten tar tempen på kunderna!

tittar man ur ett större perspektiv ser det inte så kul ut heller. Samtidigt ska man komma ihåg att datan är inte ledande, men den kan påverka prognoser som i sin tur påverkar!

Import YoY%

Export YoY%

Den sektorn som jag först kommer att tänka på när jag ser det här är Metals and mininig, men den har å andra sidan gått sämst av alla… frågan är hur mycket som är taget?

Så här skriver CS:

hina’s April trade growth disappointed, with imports rose only by 0.3% yoy

A weak April trade report

Trade growth was worse than expected in April, with both export and import growth undershooting market expectation. Exports rose 4.9% yoy in April, at only $163.25bn, weaker than the $165.7bn recorded in March.

The growth pace was weaker than the 8.5% yoy gain consensus expectation as surveyed by Bloomberg. The disappointing April performance has slowed the year-to-date export gain to 6.9% yoy, versus 7.6% yoy in March, meaning a step away from the over 10% export growth target set by the government.

Meanwhile, import growth also disappointed to the downside, up only by 0.3% yoy, slowed from the 5.2% yoy gain in March. Consensus expectation was much stronger at 10.9% yoy. On a year-to-date basis import growth was only at 5.1% yoy, slowed from 6.8% yoy in 1Q. We think the weak import growth reflect the sluggish domestic demand condition in the Chinese economy, in-line with our observation on the ground. The selective accommodative measures launched by the government should provide some support to import demand in the coming months, though we think the strength is not likely to be too strong.

The trade surplus has improved in April to $18.4bn, rebounding sharply from the $5.3bn surplus recorded in March. However, we would like to warn that the improvement was driven by a weaker than expected import gain, which we do not view positively. On a 12 month rolling sum basis, China trade surplus was at $165.3bn (2.1% of GDP), up from $158.1bn in the prior month.

Weakened machinery imports

In the first four months of the year, machinery exports rose 8.5% yoy, moderated from the 9.1% yoy gain in 1Q. Of which, exports for electrical appliances and electronic products rose 5.5% yoy, while machinery equipments rose 11% yoy. Among the labor intensive exports, clothing rose 1% yoy, textile fell 0.3% yoy, while shoes rose 4.2% yoy.

On imports, imports for iron ore rose 6.5% in volume terms, improved from the 6% gain in 1Q, and we estimated it fell 7.1% yoy in USD term.
Imports for machinery products disappointed, fell 1.6% yoy, worsened from a 0.5% yoy rise in 1Q.

My komm, inatt kommer det data som är mer leading… vi får se hur den kommer in!

Stay tuned!