Det finns mycket negativt att skriva om krisen i Grekland, men jag snappade upp två saker som går lite stick i stäv med bilden media försöker spegla…

Greek Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) improved in May to 43.1 points vs. 40.7 in April

Greek PMI posted 43.1 reading in May, an improvement on April’s 40.7 and an eight-month high, but still well below the 50.0 no-change mark that separates growth from contraction. The corresponding index in Eurozone fell to a near three-year low of 45.1 in May, down from 45.9 in April and little-changed from the earlier flash estimate of 45.0. The PMI has signaled contraction in each of the past ten months. Ireland recorded the highest reading at 51.2 followed by Austria and Spain the lowest at 42 followed by Greece’s 43.1.

Comment: Despite a weak environment for manufacturing orders which is likely to persist in the near term, a largely seasonal improvement in May’s PMI compared to April’s record low reading was recorded. However, repetitive signs of bottoming out readings are critical for leading indicators before an economic upturn can be expected.

MorganStanley skriver

I have been immersed in many discussions on topics related to the Euro yet again this week, and in
some ways I am none the wiser. However of possible interest:

1. There was a very interesting Pew Opinion Poll survey published earlier this week which covered
1,000 people in eight different European countries; five Euro members (the big four of France, Germany, Italy and Spain, plus Greece), and three non-member countries (Poland, Sweden and the UK).

As with all polls, there were oddities and some contradictions. Despite this, all five Euro member countries responded that they preferred being in the Euro than not. All of these countries except
Greece have a favourable view of Germany and, separately, its leader, Merkel. While many answers appeared to contradict the finding that its member citizens enjoy being in the Euro, there was not much support offered to those that argue people simply don’t want it. And the most eyecatching fact I noticed was that 49 pct of Germans polled believed that Germany should support “bail outs.” This was up from 42 pct the last time they were asked.

2. As I mentioned earlier, I was in Warsaw this week, and I also spent a few hours in Brussels, attending the latest BRUEGEL research think tank board meeting, on which I sit. My takeaway from both experiences adds to my view that there is no belief in the inner circles that the Euro is close to its terminal days. I interpret a large part of the apparent “inaction” from Germany as stemming from two reasons. First, more than 49 pct of the German population must be prepared to support higher bailouts. In this regard, perversely, the more fear of turmoil the better. Second, Germany and others, including the ECB quite strongly believe that to achieve a lasting solution, other countries need to be allowed to go close to the brink before they will change their behaviour. At some point, we are going to get the all-swinging policy response that many talk about, and I outlined last week.

3. As it relates to Spain, I think there is widespread belief outside of Spain that all they need to do is ask for an outside programme and they will get financing. This might even initiate more systematic pan-Euro Area initiatives that will mutualise some of the problems of Spain and others. But sticking to the view that all problems can be fixed on a case-by-case basis à la Bankia is not going to get a sympathetic ear.

4. The Greek electorate have to decide on June 17th whether they want a life where they have
strong support from their current Euro Area friends or not, plain and simple.

It all looks rather grim doesn’t it? And it isn’t even May any more. But, as I saw from a broker note this week, if you look at the valuation of many European markets, their current level relative to the CAPE (cyclically adjusted price earnings) are at such low extremes that this could be close to one of the best investment opportunities in a long, long time. Our own CAPE analysis suggests the same.

Jim O’Neill

Betyder detta att allt egentligen ser ok ut och det är ett klockrent köpläge… nej så enkelt är det inte!! Jag bara menar att för 2 månader sedan var alla väldigt positiva. För 8 månader sedan var alla vädligt negativa. För 16 månader sedan var alla postiva. Så bli inte förvånade om alla är positiva igen om 4 månader eller nåt!!!!

ps. Men jag ska ge er tre sanningar,

1. De allra bästa köplägena känns aldrig bra, de känns helfel.
2. Sannolikheten att du ska pricka botten är extremt låg.
3. Världen brukar inte gå under, det bara känns så.

ds.