I Kina kom det in data över handelsnettot i oktober.

Värt att notera är att både export och import är fortsatt starka. Detta är genrellt postivit för världskonjunkturen. Hade världen börjat gå mot double dip borde vi börja se svagare siffror nu. Handelsbalansen bör också gå under 10bn för att vi ska börja darra på manchetten. värt att att notera är att exporten till främst USA men även Japan och EU mattas av från en hög nivå. Samtidigt är den starkt till ASEAN, Korea osc. Vill man spekulera kan man säga att DM har visat sig vara i en klar mid cycle dip (där vi inom ett par månader hoppas på lite ökad tillväxt igen) medan övriga Asien har accelererat.

Generellt sett är jag positiv men David rosenberg på Gluskin Sheff, highlightar det faktum att nästan alla trades senaste månaderna är kopplade till den svaga dollarn… korrelationen mellan och inom alla tillgångslag utom cah är extremt hög. Vad betyder detta? Jo om dollarn skulle börjar stärkas kraftigt och oväntat kan det orsaka extremt stora rörelser!!! se nedan

Moreover, look at the latest Commitment of Traders report at what has happened to the commodity complex.

■The speculative long interest in gold has risen since late August to a near-record 253,638 contracts;
■The speculative longs in oil have doubled to 208,726 contracts;
■For copper, the net non-commercial longs has tripled to 25,139 contracts;
■Meanwhile, there is a huge net short position in Treasury bonds on the Chicago Board of Trade of 25,240 contracts, and;
■The net longs on the euro has swelled on the Mercantile Exchange, to 35,879 contracts.

Lord help us if the U.S. dollar ever embarks on a countertrend rally — everything from credit, to stocks, to volatility, to commodities have become abnormally correlated to the greenback.

Credit Suisse skriver bra saker om GEM idag, något jag tror på faktiskt är:

GEM: We have been overweight GEM for nearly all of the last ten years. We believe that GEM should be re-rated from its current P/E discount of 4% relative to global markets to a 20–30% premium to reflect premium productivity growth, premium balance sheets, undervalued currencies (apart from LatAm), premium RoE as well as premium RoE attribution. Tactically, NJA/GEM outperforms 80% of the time the dollar weakens—and we think the dollar is set to weaken further. QE2 is likely to create a liquidity/asset bubble in GEM (with monetary conditions set to stay too loose). NJA is the best performing region into a soft landing. GEM risk appetite is not yet extreme and neither are fund flows. We focus on Korea, Russia and China.

We see ten reasons to stay positive:

1) Global growth momentum is troughing at the same time as QE is being renewed
in an open-ended way (as above);

2) QE is likely to be more effective than investors think (keeping real rates
abnormally low, the weaker dollar effectively exporting QE; in addition, the fundsflow
effect has been underestimated in our opinion). When QE 1 was
implemented equities nearly doubled;

3) Equities offer relative value (the equity risk premium is 6.4%, against our target of
4.4%);

4) Equities offers one of the cheapest inflation hedges—and typically do not de-rate
unless inflation rise above 4% (compared to inflation expectations of 2.6% currently);

5) On the global equity strategy team, we project EPS growth of 10-15% in 2011;

6) Asset turns and leverage remain at the low end of their range – and if all US
companies were to return to net debt-to-EBITDA to 2X, EPS would rise by 8%;

7) The last time credit spreads were at current levels, equities were nearly 20%
higher;

8) Investors are still cautious – and are positioned for deflation not inflation (e.g.
equity weightings in insurance companies and pension funds are well below
historical averages).

9) Buybacks / M&A activity could pick up very sharply, with the FCF yield at an alltime
high relative to the corporate bond yield and high yield issuance above previous peaks;

10) Our Tactical indicators are not yet euphoric. Overall, global risk appetite and
equity sector risk appetite are only just above neutral levels. Equity sentiment has
recovered from its August low – but is not yet extreme (just above average).

Fan vad de får det att låta enkelt 🙂