■3Q Earnings season effectively done — 496 or 99.2% of S&P 500 reports in so far.

■Strong earnings season, with a median EPS surprise of 4.92%, and a 3.74 surprise ratio. While those numbers are down from earlier in the reporting season, they are still very good. Total of 355 positive surprises and just 95 disappointments. Positive year-over-year growth for 377, falling EPS for 115 firms, 3.28 ratio. 71.6% of all reporting firms do better than expected, 76.0% report positive year-over-year growth. Total net income reported up 25.3%.

■Sales Surprise ratio at 1.52, median surprise 0.79%, 56.9% of all firms do better than expected on top line. Revenue growth healthy at 8.13%.

■Net margins fell slightly to 9.01% from 9.02 in the second quarter but far above 7.78% year ago level. Excluding Financials, net margins rise to 8.06% from 7.91% in the second quarter and 7.00% a year ago.

■Total net income reported is $207.8 billion, up from $165.8 billion a year ago, $203.5 billion in second quarter.

■Full year total earnings for the S&P 500 expected to jump 42.9% in 2010, 13.9% further in 2011. Total revenues for the S&P 500 expected to rise 5.22% in 2010, 5.69% in 2011.

■Autos, Finance, Basic Materials and Energy expected to be earnings growth leaders in 2010. Construction expected to move from the red to the black. No sector expected to see earnings declines in 2010 or in 2011.

■Net Margins marching higher, from 5.88% in 2008 to 6.39% in 2009 to 8.68% expected for 2010, 9.35% expected for 2011. Major source of earnings growth. Net margins ex-financials 7.79% in 2008, 7.10% in 2009, 8.22% expected for 2010, 8.63% in 2011.

■Revisions ratio for full S&P 500 at 1.78 for 2010, at 1.47 for 2011, both bullish readings. Ratio of firms with rising to falling mean estimates at 1.55 for 2010, 1.33 for 2011, also positive readings. Total revisions activity past peak, and plunging. Changes in revisions ratios driven by estimates falling out more than by new estimates added.

■S&P 500 earned $544.3 billion in 2009, expected to earn $777.8 billion in 2010, $886.0 billion in 2011.

■S&P 500 earned $57.62 in 2009: $81.98 in 2010 and $93.96 in 2011 expected, bottom up. Puts P/Es at 21.2x for 2009, 14.9x for 2010 and 13.0x for 2011.

■Top Down estimates: $80.15 for 2010, $90.54 for 2011.

Vad ska man säga, riktigt bra!!!

Men det skulle ju kunna vara så att Q310 är peak kvartalet och vinsterna de kommande 4 kvartalen kan vara fallande.. ELLER?

Det faktum att top-line growth är bra i %, men även sales surprise ratio på 1,52 gör att man underskattar den globala efterfrågan?

Globala, S&P500 är ju amerikanska bolag!!! Inte riktigt, det fina med S&P500 är att där ingår världens största bolag, och de har som regel verksamhet över hela världen…. Nu har jag dessvärre inte Geografisk breakdown av Sales, men jag utgår från att den ger en ganska god bild av den globala efterfrågan!!!