CHINA: Big import miss in January -15.3% (cons -3.6%),Exports -0.5%(cons -1.4%)

Visst det har varit Kinesiskt Nyår och februari siffran kommer bli catch up… men detta visste konsensus om. Hur fan kan importen vara så svag då? Stimulus? Hårdlandning?

Förkovra er gärna på http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16977202

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Så här skriver en annan analytiker;

China’s overall trade data released this morning (exports -0.5% yoy, -1.4% consensus expectation, imports -15.3% yoy, -3.6% expected) looks soft and signals both the effect of a slowing global economy and softer domestic demand in the Middle Kingdom. The question as to whether the latter is connected with the timing of the New Year and be therefore temporary will have to wait for next month’s data. The uncertainty will keep investors guessing about whether the authorities will take further steps to ease monetary policy even this month. Even more critical and perhaps more important for investors to consider is the new loans data for January, due out some time in the next few days.

The import data certainly tells us that there is room for a reflation. Imports from the rest of Asia were hit harder, with those from big trading partners such as Japan down -36% yoy, ASEAN -21%, Taiwan -28% and South Korea -14%. Those from Russia were up 47%, also up 1% from Brazil and Australia’s were in line with the overall figure at -15%. The latter points towards resilience in commodity imports and both the overall value of those imports tracked on Bloomberg is flat yoy (USD 37.4bn). Within the data set, copper import volumes rose 14% yoy, still also at a 3MMA yoy growth rate of 30%. Crude oil import volumes were again up, 7% yoy and 7% yoy on a 3MMA basis. Imports of iron ore, aluminium and steel fell -14%, -4% and -44% respectively. The latter figure looks most alarming but steel exports (3x larger) were
steady compared with December and on a 3M basis. Net long positions in copper have swung positive in recent weeks, indicating that investors are beginning to buy the reflation story. We expect short-term upside in copper prices.

Chinese import volumes (% change yoy)

The softer overall import data will either reverse in February as the New Year effect drops out or it won’t. If it does not, then the softer inflation pressures in the system (PPI 0.7% yoy in January) should lead to monetary easing. Weaker export data is likely to keep the authorities close to their easing path anyway. The import volumes of copper and crude oil are suggesting that the reflation is underway and are supportive for those commodity prices and therefore the Energy and Materials sectors within EME. Watch out for the new loans data due out in the next few days.

Min komm, många kloka ord! Men ibland känns det lite som win-win. Blir det dåligt, blir det stimulus, då går marknaden upp. Blir det inte så dåligt, då blir det inget stimulus, men då går det också upp. Det värsta som kan hända är nog att det blir riktigt dåligt, men där kärn inflationen biter sig kvar på en sån hög nivå att man inte riktigt kan stimulera i den utsträckningen som krävs…..

Trevlig helg!