HSBC China PMI rises to 49.3 in April from 48.3 in March.

–Economists say it shows the Chinese economy is improving

–GDP growth likely to have bottomed out in first or second quarter, economists say

BEIJING (Dow Jones)–A gauge of Chinese manufacturing activity rose in April, signalling that the world’s second-largest economy is improving after growth slowed in the first quarter. The final HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose to 49.3 in April compared with 48.3 in March, the first rise in the index since February. It was also above a preliminary flash PMI reading of 49.1 that was announced on April 23, according to HSBC Holdings PLC. The preliminary figure is based on 85% to 90% of responses to HSBC’s PMI survey.

The reading comes after China’s official PMI, a competing measure, rose to 53.3 in April from 53.1 in March, according to data released Tuesday by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, which issues the data with the National Bureau of Statistics.

”China’s real economy is recovering,” said Lu Ting, an economist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. ”The chance is slight for China to post lower growth in the second quarter, compared to 8.1% growth in first quarter,” he added.

Despite the recent improvement, Lu still expects Beijing to further release liquidity by cutting the reserve requirement ratio for banks twice in the rest of the year and boost investment in infrastructure and public housing.

Meanwhile, HSBC economists said they expect the Chinese economy to bottom out in the second quarter. ”With easing measures starting to work and further measures on the way, China’s growth looks set to recover to over 8.5% in the second half,” HSBC economists said in a note.

The HSBC PMI focuses more on smaller and private companies, while the official PMI surveys many large and state-owned companies. So the difference between the two gauges may be because smaller companies, which have a harder time accessing credit, are recovering slower than large ones, economists have said.

my comm, jag var tidigare orolig för att PMI tillsammans med många andra indikatorer var fallande. Sen repa sig PMI, men där HSBC PMI var starkare än det officiella. Nu tycker jag bitarna börjar falla på plats och jag är inte lika orolig längre!

Efter det kom en radda PMI data från Europa

Frankrike 46,9 mot 47,3 väntat och föreg 46,7.. sämre än väntat men bättre än föreg!
Tyskland 46,2 mot 46,3 väntat och föreg 48,4.. ajaj, hur kan det avvika från IFO så?
EZ 45,9 mot 46 väntat och föreg 47,7… ajaj

De här siffrorna är förenliga med fortsatt försvagning i Europa samt en svag recession, eller svagt negativ tillväxt om man så vill. Detta är också konsensus, så reaktionen borde inte bli så värst negativ. Å andra sidan kanske börsen få svårt att trenda upp under en längre tid så länge som de här siffrorna inte vill bottna.

Jag tycker trots detta att optimismen i USAs och Kinas data väger tyngre, så på det hela taget så finns det anledning att vara fundamentalt positiv!