QE3 var god dröj

Capital Economics skriver….

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech at Jackson Hole offers no hint whatsoever that the Fed is building up to QE3. In fact, he appears to be saying that the Fed has largely played its part and that the politicians need to step up their game and sort out the fiscal situation. We think more QE will eventually be needed, but it probably won’t come until early next year.

The only forward-looking statement on monetary policy was the comment that the Fed is ”prepared to employ its tools as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability”. That goes no further than the statement released after the 9th August FOMC meeting.

What’s more, Bernanke did not even elaborate on what tools the Fed could use. This is a marked difference to the detailed discussion of the various options in last year’s Jackson Hole speech, which paved the way for QE2. Similarly, Bernanke made no comment on what might prompt the Fed to take more action, again unlike last year.

In fact, Bernanke devoted a large part of his speech to urging Washington to put the fiscal position on a ”sustainable path” without disregarding the ”fragility of the current recovery”. He notes that fiscal policymakers can promote growth through ”the design of tax and spending programs” and that ”the country could be served by a better process for making fiscal decisions”. In short, he appears to be saying that the politicians need to start pulling their weight.

Overall, today’s speech supports our oft-repeated view that the rebound in core inflation is a large barrier to more policy stimulus. Given that core inflation is unlikely to start falling back until early next year, QE3 is unlikely until then. Even then, it would not solve all the economy’s woes or boost equity and commodity prices by as much as QE1 & QE2 did.

Om GaStan

Ga Stan bloggar här under rubriken "Kortsikt's blogg". GaStan är en medelålders gift man bosatt i Stockholm och verksam i finansbranschen.
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4 kommentarer till QE3 var god dröj

  1. fredde skriver:

    Goldman: We continue to think that further easing via manipulation of the Fed’s balance sheet —either through expansion or restructuring of the average duration of holdings—is likely by early 2012.


    • GaStan skriver:

      Goldmsn bettar på att ekonomin blir klart sämre under 2h11 vilket till slut tvingar fram qe3. Bettet kan mycket väl slå in, men med tanke på vilken usel predikteringsförmåga de hade inför hur 2011 skulle gå så ger jag inte mycket för den prognosen. Jag menar skulle ekonomin börja återhämta sig i motsats till vad alla tror så lär inte goldman kunna prediktera detta heller.

      Enligt mig kan qe3 tvingas fram av följ två parametrar,

      För svag nfp, typ under 100k under några månader


      Fallande core inflataion, helst under 1 pct.

      Sen ska väl sägas att core inflation är lagging, så eventuell qe styrs mkt av jobbskapandet, mer om detta på fredag

      Än så längr är ingen av dem alarmerande, utan pekar snarrenpå ltg, vilket fed oclså medger. Ekonomin är svag. Men de inser också att den är svag for a reason, och det är lite dem kan göra nåt åt det.


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