Dagens skörd

Det har kommit lite data,

Från Kina kom HSBC Service PMI in på 54,0 mot fg 51,7… starkt!

Från Europa kom PMI

Fr Service PMI kom in på 43,6 mot flash 43,6 och fg 45,2… svagt
Fr Composite PMI kom in på 42,7 mot flash 42,7 och fg 44,6.. uselt
De Service PMI kom in på 55,7 mot flash 55,3 och fg 52,0… otroligt
De Composite PMI kom in på 54,4 mot flash 53,6 och fg 50,3.. Hallelulja
Ez Service PMI kom in på 48,6 mot flash 48,3 och fg 47,8… njae
Ez Composite PMI kom in på 48,6 mot flash 48,2 och fg 47,2.. kanske den Draghis tänker på när han säger att det har vänt!

Sen kom det från USA ISM Service PMI på 55,2 mot 55,2 väntat och fg 55,7… ganska inline
ISM Service Employment kom in på 57,5 mot fg 55,3.. najs!!!

Totalt sett en ganska bra radda data…

Så här skriver Merill om rapportskörden så här långt;

4Q earnings update: Energy results mixed, but most co’s beat

With the conclusion of Week 4, 254 of the S&P 500 co’s (or 70% of earnings) have reported. The bottom-up EPS estimate increased to $25.82 from $25.57 last week, driven by upward revisions to Energy and Tech. The majority of Energy companies—the bulk of Week 4 reporting—beat analysts’ (lowered) expectations, with many companies reporting weaker E&P results but better than expected refining and chemicals earnings. Energy is now expected to show YoY earnings growth this quarter. For the S&P 500, analysts now expect YoY earnings growth of 3% this quarter (2% ex. Fins)—2ppt higher than what was expected at the start.

Healthy level of beats, sales remains a bright spot

58% of companies have beaten on EPS, 61% have beaten on sales, and 39% have beaten on both. This is now well above the 20-year average of 36% of companies beating on top and bottom line. Sales beats were notably better than recent quarters, a positive given that cost structures are lean and sales growth is critical at this point. Sales are now in-line with or slightly ahead of expectations for all but two sectors (Utes & Staples, Chart 5 inside). Consensus now expects YoY sales growth
of 1% this quarter (flat ex. Financials), with most of the non-commodity exposed sectors posting low to mid single digit sales growth.

Less penalty than usual for misses

Companies that beat on EPS and sales have outperformed the S&P 500 by 2.5ppt in the five days following reporting, slightly above average. But those that missed on both have underperformed by 1.9ppt, a narrower spread than the typical penalty. While these statistics do not yet include last week’s Energy companies, BofAML Energy analyst Doug Leggate noted that 4Q EPS may already be viewed as
irrelevant given the rebound in natural gas prices, likely a larger driver of returns.

A capex recovery in the works

Consistent with our observations last week, guidance on capex suggests we could be in the early stages of a cash spending recovery. The capex guidance ratio—the count of companies where management is guiding above vs. below consensus on planned capex—has been inching up ever since October. And in January, for every company that guided below consensus capex expectations, three guided above.
Positive signs for cyclical & multinationals Sectors with the biggest increase in 4Q bottom-up estimates since January are Energy, Tech and Materials, the former two of which have also seen the most top and bottom line beats. Last week’s Revision Ratios work revealed that though globally-oriented cyclical sectors are still seeing more negative than positive revisions to earnings estimates, trends have begun to improve. Tech, Industrials and Materials saw the largest increases in revision ratios in January, and trends for the more domestic/defensive sectors have deteriorated. We think that the beatendown multinationals —now cheap and underowned—look poised to recover.

Up next: Results taper off;

Utes & Consumer dominate Week 5 Week 4 marked the last major week of reporting season, with earnings reports for the remaining half of the S&P 500 more spread out over the next several weeks.
Another 10% of earnings are expected to report this week, dominated by Utilities and the two Consumer sectors.

Vidare skriver Morgan Stanley så här om rapporterna…

Summary Of 4Q 2012 Earnings Season

We have published the initial readings of the 4Q 2012 earnings season. So far, we have tracked 66 companies or 15% of European market cap. Only 55%-60% of market cap report quarterly earnings data.

14% more companies have beaten than have missed earnings estimates

Looking at pre-exceptionals earnings, 39% of companies have beaten estimates, while 26% of companies have missed expectations, meaning a net 14% of companies have beaten expectations.

In a historical context, if this pace were to be kept up, this would be the best season since the 3Q 2010. However, we would highlight that the pace of beats / misses usually moderates a lot as the earnings season progresses. In aggregate, EPS has missed by 5%, but ex financials, total earnings
have come in 1% above expectations. Revenues have surprised on the upside too So far, 47% of companies have beaten sales estimates, whilst just 21% have missed, meaning a net positive surprise of
26%. Total revenues have missed by 0.5%, but so far that has just been concentrated to Energy, with all other sectors reporting positively so far. Earnings revisions have weakened in the last few weeks
From mid-November through to mid-January, the FY2 earnings revisions ratio improved strongly by 11%, from -14% to -3%.

However, in the last few weeks, it has been noticeable that revisions have turned back down to -5%. However, we would consider the progression of this figure to be more important to monitor as we progress further into earnings season. US earnings have beaten a low bar With 59% of the S&P 500’s market cap reported, results have been better than anticipated. Aggregate earnings are tracking
4.5% ahead of expectations. The financials sector is exceeding expectations while, ex-financials the earnings beat is 3.8% to date. Of course, the trajectory of fourth quarter estimates had been sharply negative leading into the reporting season, enabling companies to beat a lowered bar. Revenues (ex-fin), on the other hand, are pacing a modest 0.9% above expectations. Companies are still guiding down. So far during this earnings cycle, the ratio of negative-to-positive guidance is 3.6 for the first quarter of 2013. Consensus expectations are falling: Given the negative guidance, earnings estimates for the S&P 500 are decelerating. In the last month, EPS expectations are down 2.3% for 2013.


Om GaStan

Ga Stan bloggar här under rubriken "Kortsikt's blogg". GaStan är en medelålders gift man bosatt i Stockholm och verksam i finansbranschen.
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