PMIs pekar på att efterfrågan kan komma igång mot slutet av året… från en låg nivå, och väldigt långsamt… men ändå!
I övrigt konstaterar CreditSuisse följ:
US 10-year year TIPS yields have risen sharply from minus 70bps in April to +60bps, leading to a sell-off in those asset classes that have benefitted from the continuous fall in real rates over the past 4 years (gold, emerging market assets, corporate credit, high-yielding equities)
US macro surprises have turned positive for the first time since early May, while Japanese macro surprises have moved to the highest level since late 2010 and the Euro-area series is also rising strongly (it now stands at -5, up from -80 in late April). As a consequence, our aggregate series of global macro surprises is rebounding, a sign that the March / April slowdown in global growth momentum has come to an end (for more details, see our report Equities: stay overweight despite turbulence, June 24);
Euro-area consumer confidence rose to a two-year high, as did our proxy of domestic demand in the Euro-area (which we back out from Euro-area manufacturing PMI new orders and new export orders). This latter indicator suggests Euro-area domestic demand growth has stopped detracting from overall Euro-area output growth – and, barring a further shock, should turn positive by the end of the year (see chart below). Net speculative positions on the euro have risen close to the highest level since July 2011. Our FX strategists expect the euro to continue strengthening, given the improvement in economic momentum, a record current account surplus, high real rates and a rebound in portfolio inflows; see their note The Euro Defies the Naysayers, June 14, page 30;
Consensus forecasts for Chinese GDP growth have fallen to 7.7%, below the 2008 trough level of 7.9%. At the same time, Chinese sovereign CDS spreads have risen to 140bps, a one-year high. Tellingly, while at the height of the Euro-area crisis in 2011, German and Chinese CDS spreads were roughly at the same level, German CDS spreads, at 28bps, now trade at a fraction of Chinese spreads (see chart below). For a discussion of the structural weakness in China, see our slide pack Our concerns about China, June 25;
While global bond mutual funds continued to see significant outflows in the week to June 19, bringing the overall outflows over the past three weeks to $34bn (or 1.2% of assets under management), global equity funds saw inflows of $5bn during that week, bucking a three-week streak of outflows.