Nästa vecka får vi nya signaler om FED är sugna på att trappa ner QE, eller om de inväntar signaler från arbetsmarknaden att recoverien tilltar i styrka.

Så här skriver en av Nomuras strateger; vilket är läsvärt. Jag måste säga att jag länge tillhört skolan att FED agerar med sysselsättnings- och inflationsdata som underlag. Därför skulle det också dröja innan de drar tillbaks stimulanser. Men jag är inte lika säker längre.

Fed to Taper Purchases on Speculative Bubble Fear, Janjuah Says

By James Holloway

June 14 (Bloomberg) — Fed tapering is going to happen –in a gentle, well-telegraphed fashion designed to spare the real economy a major shock, Nomura co-head of macro strategy research Bob Janjuah writes in client note.

However, Fed tapering will not be due to strong economy, sustained core wage inflation or full employment, none of which will be seen for years to come “The Fed is going to taper because it is getting very fearful that it is creating a number of significant and dangerous leverage driven speculative bubbles that could threaten the financial stability of the U.S.” “In central bank speak, the Fed has likely come to the point where it feels the costs now outweigh the benefits of more policy”

Some members of Fed, looking at BoJ’s recent experience, may be worrying about the future of the central bank and the U.S. “if they persist with treating emergency and highly experimental policy settings as the new normal”
Fed will hope that markets “heed the message” that valuations gradually move to levels “somewhat closer to what is justified by rational and sustainable real economic fundamental metrics”

“The sad likelihood is that markets – which are suffering from an acute form of Stockholm Syndrome – will listen and react too little too late. This could give us the large 25% to 50% bear market I expect to see beginning in late 2013 or early 2014, rather than a more gradual correction.

En stängning under EMA50 ser jag fortfarande som en väldigt kritisk nivå för den här rekylens framtid! OMX30 borde åtminstone stänga gapet vid 1174.

Trevlig helg!